Hurricane Erin tracker: Storm surge warning issued in North Carolina as Category 2 storm starts to head northeast — see the latest path
Beachgoers are being urged not to swim at most East Coast beaches due to dangerous surf conditions.
While Hurricane Erin is beginning to turn toward the northeast, a storm surge warning has been issued in North Carolina because "large and dangerous waves" could cause "surge-related flooding" along the coast, the National Hurricane Center said.
Erin is currently a Category 2 storm, and rip currents and high tides are expected to occur later today, with waves expected to peak between 2 and 4 feet along the Outer Banks, N.C.
The rough surf conditions from Erin could affect the Bahamas, Bermuda and beaches up and down the East Coast over the next several days. "Beachgoers are cautioned against swimming at most U.S. East Coast beaches due to life-threatening surf and rip currents," the hurricane center said.
Officials in North Carolina have already declared states of emergency in Dare and Hyde Counties and ordered mandatory evacuations of Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, even though the storm isn't forecast to make landfall. But tropical storm conditions and the possibility of life-threatening inundation of water from Erin are expected to make an impact on the barrier islands.
North Carolina Highway 12 is the primary road that connects the islands in the Outer Banks and separates the Sound side from the Atlantic Ocean side. It's expected to be torn up and washed out in several places from the impacts of Erin, which could isolate villages for days or even weeks.
Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean last week, officially reaching hurricane status on Friday. It is the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season.
Where is Hurricane Erin now, and what is its path?
As of 8 a.m. ET Thursday:
Erin was located 440 miles west-northwest of Bermuda and about 210 miles east of Cape Hatteras, N.C.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 storm.
It's moving north-northeast at 17 mph.
According to the NHC's latest advisory, Erin is expected to turn northeast later today. It's expected to increase in forward speed with even more acceleration on Friday and into the weekend.
The NHC forecast track shows that Erin's center will be over the western Atlantic Ocean between the East Coast and Bermuda through Friday morning, before passing through southern Atlantic Canada Friday evening and Saturday.
Watches and warnings
As of 8 a.m. ET Thursday, these are the advisories in place, according to the NHC:
Storm surge warnings are in effect for:
Cape Lookout to Duck, N.C.
Tropical storm warning is in effect for:
Beaufort Inlet, N.C., to Chincoteague, Va., including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.
Tropical storm watch is in effect for:
Bermuda
What those watches and warnings mean
A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, over the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. In North Carolina, 2 to 4 feet of storm surge is possible from Cape Lookout to Duck. And up to 3 feet of storm surge is possible from South Santee River, S.C., to Cape May, N.J.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Outer Banks and Virginia coastline starting late today. On the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are forecast Thursday through early Friday. Additionally, Bermuda could see tropical storm conditions on Thursday and Friday.
Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer Banks this afternoon into Thursday, with the potential for 1 to 2 inches.
Though Erin is not expected to make direct landfall, swells generated by the storm will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
“These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents,” the NHC said.
What are the chances Erin will intensify?
Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Erin reached Category 4 strength on Saturday and again on Monday before weakening on Tuesday. It is currently a Category 2 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph.
"Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so," the NHC said. "Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend."
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles.
How is hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.
Earlier this month, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13 to 18 (estimated at 13 to 19 in May), of which up to five could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We’re currently about halfway through this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, and as of Aug. 15, there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter, and now Hurricane Erin.