Will Tropical Storm Dexter form in the Gulf? Invest 93L spaghetti models and more

All eyes are currently on Florida as a tropical disturbance designated Invest 93L sits off the state's eastern coast and prepares to track westward over the next couple of days, according to National Hurricane Center forecasters.

AccuWeather is calling the disturbance a "tropical rainstorm" because it is expected to drench Central Florida in 4 to 8 inches of rain on Tuesday before entering the Gulf, where it could organize and strengthen into a tropical depression.

Tropical Storm Dexter is the next named storm, but it's not yet clear that Invest 93L will have the time needed to develop into a tropical storm.

"The farther south that the tropical rainstorm is able to travel over Florida, the longer it will have over the Gulf to strengthen before landfall," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explained.

Regardless of how the tropical disturbance develops, Florida as a whole will experience widespread precipitation.

"Heavy downpours are expected to continue across much of the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday night. Thunderstorms, infused with tropical moisture, could produce more than 4 inches of rain," DaSilva said.

The Florida Panhandle will see heavy rainfall from Invest 93L after it reaches the Gulf on Wednesday. The greatest threat to the area at the moment is flash flooding in low-lying, poor-drainage areas and urban locations.

Invest 93L is currently expected to make landfall near Louisiana's southeastern coast Thursday morning.

How likely will Invest 93L strengthen?

The National Hurricane Center increased the chances that AL93 would develop over the next 48 hours to 40%. Given the relatively short timeline the storm has to develop, its chance of formation through the next seven days is also 40%.

Invest 93L's track through the Gulf and how well it organizes will determine how widespread the rainfall will be and how strong the storm becomes.

The faster the storm rolls across Florida, the more likely it is to push the tropical rain across the central Gulf Coast, according to AccuWeather.

If it stalls over the Gulf or Louisiana, it'll lead to more widespread heavy rain and flooding.

"The farther south that the tropical rainstorm is able to travel over Florida, the longer it will have over the Gulf to strengthen before landfall," DaSilva explained.

Invest 93L will reach the Gulf on Wednesday. What Florida Panhandle residents should know

Invest 93L is still east of the Florida peninsula, but it's expected to track across the state on July 15 and reach the Gulf by July 16, where it is expected to strengthen.

Floridians around the state should expect heavy rain and the potential for localized flash flooding throughout the week. Central and South Florida are already seeing impacts from Invest 93L, but the Florida Panhandle won't see anything until July 16.

"Heavy downpours are expected to continue across much of the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday night. Thunderstorms, infused with tropical moisture, could produce more than 4 inches of rain," said DaSilva.

Those at the Florida beaches will also experience rough surf and strong rip currents into July 16.

"A more organized tropical system would bring a larger swath of heavy rain and a more widespread flooding risk," DaSilva added.

AccuWeather forecasters predict a tropical depression will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana the morning of July 17.

"The farther south that the tropical rainstorm is able to travel over Florida, the longer it will have over the Gulf to strengthen before landfall," DaSilva said. It's not out the question that, in this scenario, the tropical system would have enough time to become a tropical storm. 

Latest on Invest 93L

Invest 93L is still a relatively weak area of low pressure just off Florida's east coast, though it's becoming more organized. As of Tuesday morning, the disturbance was centered around 29°N latitude and 79.5°W longitude.

Its pressure was recorded at 1014 mb, which is fairly normal at this point in the cycle.

Upper level northerly winds have managed to keep rain and thunderstorm activity disorganized.

Invest 93 spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

Invest 93L timeline

Invest 93L is currently east of the Florida peninsula and will move westward across Central Florida through Tuesday.

The tropical disturbance will reach the Gulf early Wednesday morning, where AccuWeather still expects it to move generally westward, parallel to the Florida Panhandle. During this time, Invest 93L will have a chance for further development.

Invest 93L could make landfall along Louisiana's southeastern coastline early Thursday morning, according to AccuWeather's latest forecast.

From there, the storm is expected to steer northward, losing wind intensity but still bringing plenty of rain to the southern portion of the Mississippi River Valley on Friday and Saturday.

Editor's note: This story was updated with more information regarding strengthening and timeline.

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Will Tropical Storm Dexter form in the Gulf? What to know