Potential Tropical Storm Dexter may bring 'impactful' rain from Houston to Panama City

A broad area of low pressure continues to move westward across the Florida Panhandle and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorm activity mainly south of its center, the National Hurricane Center said early Wednesday morning.

Hurricane center forecasters said the system, designated as Invest 93L, is forecast to continue moving westward and could emerge or redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central portion of the Gulf, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday.

"If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could still form over the next couple of days before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week," the hurricane center said in an advisory early Wednesday.

'Impactful' rain from Texas to Florida

Even if the system doesn't develop into a named storm, which would be named Dexter, forecasters warn it will still bring significant impacts.

AccuWeather forecasters expect a potential tropical depression to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Thursday afternoon, bringing heavy rain, storm surge of 1 to 3 feet, and wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. Coastal Mississippi could also be affected, especially if the system strengthens into a tropical storm before landfall.

Meteorologist Nick Lilja said in a Facebook post that, regardless of whether the system develops or where it tracks, heavy rainfall is expected.

"If you live anywhere between Galveston and Panama City and within 50 miles of the coast, I'd make certain your property is clear and clean and that water can easily exit your property and get to the drainage areas," he wrote in a post Sunday.

In a separate post Tuesday, Lilja said forecast models are beginning to converge on southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi coast for the highest rainfall totals. Still, he warned that the entire stretch from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Panama City, Florida, is “fair game for at least a 48-hour period of a washout between Wednesday and Sunday as this thing meanders west."

Will a tropical system hit Texas?

While Texas is not currently in the projected path, remnant moisture drifting west or southwest across the Gulf could trigger scattered storms — especially in Southeast Texas along the coast.

The National Weather Service in Houston has issued a slight risk of excessive rainfall for areas east of I-45 on Friday.

“A surge of tropical moisture could bring showers and thunderstorms to Southeast Texas later this week,” the agency wrote. “This heavy rainfall threat will greatly depend on how a disturbance over Florida evolves over the next several days.”

Atlantic storm tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

What is a 'homegrown' system?

A "homegrown" or "homebrew" storm is one that forms close to the U.S. coast, often in the Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean, or the nearby Atlantic. These storms are more common during the early part of the hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, according to an online forecast discussion from AccuWeather.

While Cape Verde hurricanes — which form from tropical waves off the coast of Africa — account for about 85% of major hurricanes and 60% of all tropical storms and hurricanes, most of these storms stay out to sea or weaken before reaching the mainland U.S. They can be extremely powerful when they do make landfall, but that’s relatively rare.

In fact, only eight out of 54 hurricanes that struck the U.S. between 1995 and 2023 originated as Cape Verde systems, according to storm track data.

These so-called "homegrown" storms tend to form or intensify quickly in warm, shallow waters near the coast, leaving little time for preparation. Because of their proximity, they’re often considered the greater threat to the U.S., even if they’re shorter-lived or not as strong as Cape Verde storms.

See spaghetti models for Invest 93L

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Potential Tropical Storm Dexter may bring rain to Texas: See path